empty
31.01.2025 01:43 PM
BTC/USD Analysis – January 31: Trump and Powell Drive Bitcoin Higher

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart on the BTC/USD appears entirely clear. Following a prolonged and complex a-b-c-d-e corrective pattern that developed from March 14 to August 5, a new impulse wave has emerged, which has already taken on a five-wave structure. Given the size of the first wave within this structure, the fifth wave may end up being truncated. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave structure, confirming the accuracy of the current wave count. Since the construction of the anticipated Wave 5 has begun, it makes sense to look for buying opportunities. However, as I mentioned earlier, this wave may conclude very soon (or may have already ended).

The news backdrop has supported Bitcoin's growth due to a steady flow of reports about new investments from institutional traders, governments of certain countries, and even pension funds. However, Trump's policies could drive investors out of the market, and the trend cannot remain upward indefinitely.

BTC/USD surged by $1,400 on Thursday. Buyers continue to hold Bitcoin near its historical highs, signaling to the market that the leading cryptocurrency could continue rising. However, in my view, caution is warranted when buying at current price levels.

Undoubtedly, if demand remains strong, Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 or even $200,000. However, anyone familiar with the cryptocurrency market knows that Bitcoin is not only famous for its explosive rallies but also for its frequent 80–90% crashes.

The crypto market is highly susceptible to manipulation by large players due to the lack of regulation from central banks or other authorities. Major Bitcoin holders can push the price up or down at will, with the ultimate target being profit maximization. At current prices, they could trigger a mass sell-off, only to start accumulating again around $50,000—or even lower.

That said, most market participants are not yet prepared for a crash. While Donald Trump has not yet begun filling the U.S. Treasury with Bitcoin, he has ordered an evaluation of this "business plan." Meanwhile, Jerome Powell also mentioned Bitcoin in his speech on Wednesday evening—a rare occurrence.

The Fed Chairman stated that the crypto market needs a regulatory framework and that banks should improve their risk management strategies regarding cryptocurrencies. These remarks indicate that the Fed supports the development of the crypto sector—and so does Donald Trump. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin demand remains consistently high.

This image is no longer relevant

Key Conclusions

Based on my BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the current uptrend is nearing its end. While this view may be unpopular, Wave 5 could end up being truncated, followed by a sharp decline or a complex correction. Therefore, I do not recommend buying Bitcoin at this time.

If Wave 5 develops into an extended five-wave structure, then a convincing corrective Wave 2 should form within it. At the moment, Wave 2 is visible on the chart, but it is not very strong. I believe that at least one more decline is likely.

On a higher time frame, a five-wave upward structure is clearly visible. This suggests that a corrective, downward structure or a bearish trend phase may soon begin.

Core Principles of My Analysis

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
  2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Seleccione el marco de tiempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
día
1
s.
Gana con los cambios en el valor de las criptomonedas con InstaForex.
Descarga MetaTrader 4 y abre tu primera operación.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    UNIRSE AL CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 28 de marzo

El Bitcoin y Ethereum siguen enfrentando dificultades. Otro intento fallido de que el Bitcoin se mantuviera por encima del nivel de 88 000 llevó a su venta durante la sesión

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:52 2025-03-28 UTC+2

El Éter cayó. El Bitcoin salió mejor parado

A pesar de la implementación exitosa de la actualización de prueba Pectra en la nueva red de pruebas Hoodi —lo que representa el último paso antes de su implementación

Jakub Novak 07:52 2025-03-28 UTC+2

Análisis del par BTC/USD. El 27 de marzo. El Bitcoin no tiene potencial de crecimiento

La estructura de ondas del gráfico de 4 horas para el instrumento BTC/USD es completamente comprensible. Después de completar un tramo ascendente de la tendencia, compuesto por cinco ondas completas

Chin Zhao 08:25 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 27 de marzo

El Bitcoin y Ethereum vuelven a enfrentar ciertas dificultades para subir. Pero esto es más bien una reacción a las nuevas declaraciones políticas de Trump, lo que llevó

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:28 2025-03-27 UTC+2

BCH/USD – situación actual y perspectivas

Los sentimientos de duda e incertidumbre de la semana pasada se mantienen hasta ahora. La atracción del nivel final del cruce mensual de Ichimoku (329,98) sigue manteniendo al mercado dentro

Evangelos Poulakis 07:10 2025-03-27 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 26 de marzo

El Bitcoin y Ethereum continúan mostrando un crecimiento activo, pero también enfrentan dificultades al superar niveles importantes de resistencia. Ayer, el Bitcoin, tras alcanzar los $88 400, retrocedió y actualmente

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:32 2025-03-26 UTC+2

El Bitcoin se estanca antes de un nuevo impulso por encima de los $90 000

Mientras estás pensando si comprar Bitcoin o no, el mayor gestor de activos del mundo, la empresa BlackRock, está aumentando activamente sus reservas de ETH para su fondo tokenizado BUIDL

Jakub Novak 07:32 2025-03-26 UTC+2

Recomendaciones para operar en el mercado de criptomonedas el 25 de marzo

El Bitcoin y Ethereum lograron actualizar niveles bastante importantes, pero una vez más no pudieron mantenerse por encima de ellos. El Bitcoin, tras alcanzar el nivel de $88 600, retrocedió

Miroslaw Bawulski 07:48 2025-03-25 UTC+2

Por qué la caída de Bitcoin aún no ha terminado

A pesar del reciente crecimiento del mercado de criptomonedas, por ahora las perspectivas alcistas más amplias y el regreso del Bitcoin al nivel de $100 000 siguen siendo poco realistas

Jakub Novak 07:48 2025-03-25 UTC+2

Recomendaciones de trading en el mercado de criptomonedas para el 24 de marzo

El Bitcoin y Ethereum han mostrado un crecimiento bastante sólido hoy después de un fin de semana algo apagado, lo que indica una creciente disposición de los inversores al riesgo

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:41 2025-03-24 UTC+2
¿No puede hablar ahora mismo?
Ingrese su pregunta en el chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.