empty
11.03.2025 01:39 AM
EUR/USD. Intermission

Last week, the euro-dollar pair surged over 500 points, rising from a low of 1.0378 to a high of 1.0889. However, buyers did not attempt to push past the 1.09 level. Instead, the currency pair consolidated within the 1.08 range, drifting sideways due to a nearly empty economic calendar on Monday.

On that Monday, important macroeconomic reports from Germany painted a mixed picture. While industrial production showed strong growth, exports experienced a significant decline. As a result, the EUR/USD pair struggled to find a clear direction. During the European session, the pair fluctuated, initially dropping to the lower boundary of the 1.08 range at 1.0806, before rising by a few dozen points to reach a daily high of 1.0875.

This image is no longer relevant

Germany's industrial production rose 2.0% in January, marking the fastest growth rate since June last year. Analysts had expected a more modest increase of 1.6%. The surge was primarily driven by a sharp rise in automobile production, which jumped by 6.4%. Additionally, December's result was revised upward. Initially, production was reported to have contracted by 2.4%, but updated data showed a decline of only 1.5%.

However, Germany's exports fell by 2.5% in January on a monthly basis, contrary to expectations of a 0.5% increase, signaling uncertain economic prospects. The country's trade surplus for January stood at 16 billion euros, well below the 20.6 billion euros expected by analysts.

The conflicting macroeconomic reports did not provide clear support for either buyers or sellers of the EUR/USD currency pair. Additionally, the broader fundamental context raises more questions than it answers. European Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated on Monday that Washington has no intention of preventing a trade war with the EU and does not plan to negotiate a deal with Brussels. He noted that the U.S. side "does not want to negotiate."

As is widely known, the 25% U.S. tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports from the EU are scheduled to take effect in two days. While former President Trump could choose to cancel or delay these tariffs at any moment, Sefcovic's comments indicate that no such action is expected.

This statement puts pressure on the dollar, especially since Sefcovic hinted at potential retaliatory measures (without specifying any details). On the other hand, markets still consider that the U.S. president may postpone the tariffs at the last minute, just as he did with tariffs on Mexico and Canada (delaying them until April 2).

Moreover, key U.S. inflation data is set to be released on Wednesday and Thursday. Ahead of these reports, EUR/USD traders are hesitant to take large positions, whether long or short.

Preliminary forecasts suggest that February's CPI may finally start to slow—only slightly, but the key factor is that it will be trending downward. The overall Consumer Price Index is expected to come in at 2.9% year-over-year (down from January's 3.0% target), while the core CPI is projected at 3.2%, compared to 3.3% the previous month. It is important to note that this release will not change the Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady in March. However, it could influence market sentiment regarding the possibility of a rate cut in May.

Currently, markets see a 50/50 chance of a May rate cut. If February's CPI accelerates instead of slowing, traders will likely shift their focus to the June meeting, especially after Powell recently stated that the Fed "can afford to be patient." On the other hand, if CPI slows more than expected, the probability of a May rate cut will remain on the table, putting significant pressure on the dollar.

Given these uncertainties, it is unsurprising that EUR/USD traders are exercising caution. After a sharp 500-point rally, the pair has essentially stalled, waiting for key releases. Additionally, the "quiet period" began—a 10-day window before the Fed meeting during which policymakers were prohibited from making public statements about monetary policy.

In light of the current uncertainty, a wait-and-see approach appears to be reasonable for the pair. Buyers have not been able to break above the 1.09 level, while sellers have struggled to push the price below 1.0800. Looking ahead, there are two possible scenarios: the pair could either resume its upward trend, which would require a firm hold above the upper Bollinger Bands line on the H4 timeframe at 1.0890, or it may enter a broad correction, potentially dropping to 1.0750 or lower. At this moment, there are no clear signals favoring either outcome, creating a sort of "intermission."

Irina Manzenko,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

Hoje, o ouro está atraindo novos vendedores. Em meio à escalada significativa do conflito entre Irã e Israel, os Estados Unidos realizaram ataques aéreos contra três instalações nucleares iranianas

Irina Yanina 18:01 2025-06-23 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Análise e previsão

No momento, o Índice do Dólar Americano (DXY) atingiu uma nova alta em duas semanas, impulsionado por sinais hawkish da Reserva Federal. O banco central dos EUA manteve sua previsão

Irina Yanina 17:58 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Os EUA entram na guerra entre o Irã e Israel. O que vem a seguir para os mercados? (Possível potencial de queda limitado para os contratos #NDX e #SPX)

Os Estados Unidos não podiam abandonar seu satélite e representante no Oriente Médio — Israel — para enfrentar o Irã sozinho. No domingo, lançaram ataques contra as instalações nucleares iranianas

Pati Gani 17:49 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Dólar americano: Previsão semanal

Os Estados Unidos trazem uma série de eventos econômicos relevantes nesta semana, em um contexto que continua fortemente influenciado pela guerra em curso no Oriente Médio, como já destaquei anteriormente

Chin Zhao 17:37 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Libra Britância: Previsão semanal

A dinâmica da libra esterlina também não será impulsionada pela própria moeda nem por notícias internas do Reino Unido. Os motivos são os mesmos: o envolvimento dos Estados Unidos

Chin Zhao 17:22 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Euro: Prévia da semana

Poucos acreditam que as notícias econômicas conseguirão ofuscar os acontecimentos geopolíticos da próxima semana. Esses "outros acontecimentos" têm relevância global. No fim de semana, os Estados Unidos lançaram ataques contra

Chin Zhao 17:11 2025-06-23 UTC+2

O mercado teme retaliação

Espere pelo melhor, prepare-se para o pior. Desde o início do conflito entre Israel e Irã, o mercado tem, em grande parte, ignorado a gravidade da situação. A reação

Marek Petkovich 16:42 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Bitcoin ansioso por novos máximos, mas algo o impede

O Bitcoin foi criado como uma forma de preservar valor em tempos de turbulência, especialmente diante do enfraquecimento das moedas fiduciárias. Acreditava-se que a entrada de investidores institucionais serviria como

Marek Petkovich 15:50 2025-06-23 UTC+2

O que prestar atenção em 20 de junho? Uma análise dos eventos fundamentais para iniciantes

Há poucos relatórios macroeconômicos programados para esta sexta-feira. O único relatório do dia será o relatório de vendas no varejo do Reino Unido. Nenhum dado econômico será divulgado hoje

Paolo Greco 21:37 2025-06-20 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par AUD/JPY está recuperando impulso positivo após uma leve correção no dia anterior. No entanto, os preços à vista permanecem confinados dentro de uma faixa lateral de vários dias

Irina Yanina 17:08 2025-06-20 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.