Forex Analysis & Reviews: 23.02.2022 - US premarket on February 23:...

23.02.2022 01:49 PM

US premarket on February 23: banking and oil sectors among most attractive investment areas

US stock index futures rose on Wednesday after the S&P 500 index closed in the red amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Futures contracts linked to the industrial index rose by 220 points or 0.65%. S&P 500 futures added 0.77% and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 1.11%. The Dow Jones index fell by 483 points or 1.42% after yesterday's trading session, marking its fourth consecutive decline. The S&P 500 index lost 1.01%, and Nasdaq Composite dropped by 1.23%. It was the fourth negative session in a row.

US President Joe Biden unveiled the first sanctions against Russia yesterday. The measures aim at several Russian banks, the country's sovereign debt, and three businessmen. Many experts note that despite the negative reaction of the market to military actions, which tend to cause volatility and short-term declines, markets eventually recover unless these events push the economy into recession.

Energy prices declined today, while government bond yields rose. A lot of energy stocks are in the red now, despite the jump in oil prices, which is a good time to buy the asset in the medium term. High oil prices promise to remain so for quite some time. At the time of writing, Brent crude is down slightly from yesterday's levels at $99.50 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate crude futures, after hitting a high of $96, have also sagged and are trading at $91.30 now.

I also would like to draw your attention to the banking sector, which will show good growth this year amid rising interest rates in many countries. According to Refinitiv, Barclays Plc's fourth-quarter net income was £1.12 billion, exceeding the average forecast of £756.5 million. These figures show a significant improvement in the company's financial health compared with net income of £1.53 billion reported in 2020 and £220 million in the fourth quarter of the same year. Barclays also reported a full-year 2021 net income of £6.38 billion, beating analysts' expectations of £5.75 billion. This large growth was achieved by the prosperity of its corporate and investment banking divisions. The UK bank experienced a tumultuous Q4 2021 after CEO Jes Staley resigned in November over a regulatory investigation into his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. After the bank's third-quarter earnings, Staley said 2021 would be a "great year" for Barclays, as strong growth from its corporate and investment banking division continued to drive profits, a key ratio used to measure profitability.

As for US interest rates, rising rates will only boost banking sector profitability. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, Wall Street is betting on a 100% chance of a rate hike at the Federal Reserve's meeting in March. With inflation skyrocketing, calls for a 50 basis point rate hike at the March meeting are increasing.

Regarding bond yields, they have fallen as tensions between Russia and Ukraine have escalated. The yield on benchmark 10-year US Treasuries fell below 2% as investors look for safe-haven assets.

As for the technical picture of the S&P 500 index

Bulls started actively buying from $4,319 today, above which the market opened with a gap. A fast return above $4,319 leaves hope for the market recovery, however, what will be at the regular session today is a big question. Buyers need to hold the price support at $4,319, and the index is likely to test this level today. A breakout of this range may increase pressure on the index and return the bear market with the prospect of hitting the lows of $4,265 and $4,223. Bulls will probably try to continue pushing the price upwards today to the resistance area of $4,378. A breakout of this area may allow the index to recover to the area of $4,433.

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*A análise de mercado aqui postada destina-se a aumentar o seu conhecimento, mas não dar instruções para fazer uma negociação.

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Jakub Novak,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025

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