Forex Analysis & Reviews: 14.11.2022 - Gas in Europe jumped in...

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14.11.2022 11:42 PM

Gas in Europe jumped in price by 20%

The exchange price of gas on the ICE Futures platform soared above $1,150 per thousand cubic meters on Monday. The cost of the December futures on the TTF hub in the Netherlands rose by 10% and by 11:32 London time reached $1168. Already in the evening, the cost of gas in Europe soared by 20%, by 18:46 London time they reached the level of $1250.

But prices in the spot market are much lower. The value of the contract with the delivery "day ahead" (November 14) was $716.6. The average price of spot contracts in November is even lower - $605.8.

The rise in prices occurred amid a sharp cooling in some European regions. Temperatures are expected to drop significantly over the weekend and early next week in parts of Northern Europe and Germany, down to freezing temperatures. This Maxar Technologies forecast suggests that winter is coming and that the commodity market is entering a strong phase.

But in addition to the forecasts, sad for European inhabitants, energy prices are also supported by the prospect of limiting supplies from Norway, one of the largest gas suppliers to Europe. The fact is that work at the Asgard field was stopped in some places due to identified technological problems. The message about these problems came to the world media from the Norwegian international energy company Equinor, which is the owner of Asgard.

Last Sunday, a fire broke out in the platform's transformer, due to which production on it was stopped, and the personnel were evacuated. For this reason, daily nominations have decreased by about 7%. aggravated by the fact that there is no talk about the timing of recovery in the media.

On top of that, on Monday at a large gas processing plant in Norway (gas is being prepared there for deliveries to the UK), personnel were evacuated and even the police came. Details of what happened there have not yet been received. The operator of the Norwegian GTS only said that this unpleasant incident did not disrupt the planned flow of gas to Europe, although it clearly increased the anxiety of buyers.

Recall that due to fears of a ban on the import of Russian energy resources in March, stock gas quotes updated their historical highs for four consecutive days. The price record was reached on March 7 at $3892. In the period April-May, the cost of gas began to fall, but rose again in the summer months. In August, the average settlement price began to exceed $2,450, and this was a new record for the entire history of the operation of gas hubs in Europe, that is, since 1996.

This autumn, gas quotes finally began to decline. The average settlement price of the nearest futures in September was at the level of $2093, and in October it was already $1377. This is probably due to the high level of occupancy of gas storage facilities in Europe. By the way, the total level of blue fuel in underground storage facilities in Germany is already 99.89%. In any case, this is what the German Federal Network Agency said. And at the same time, they noted that it is still impossible to exclude the worsening of the situation.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.