Analysis of Trades and Recommendations for Trading the British Pound

A test of the 1.2297 level during the first half of the day occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential—especially given the recent downtrend in the pound. For this reason, I refrained from buying.

The focus now shifts to significant U.S. statistics. The session will begin with data on nonfarm payrolls and conclude with inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. In the current economic conditions, employment and unemployment data have become key indicators for investors. Paradoxically, even slight changes in these metrics can have a significant impact on currency rates. For instance, a sharp increase in nonfarm payrolls could boost market optimism and strengthen the dollar, further weakening the pound. Conversely, weak figures and rising unemployment could cast doubt on the sustainability of U.S. economic growth and the Federal Reserve's restrictive policy, weakening the dollar.

Regarding intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:

Today, I plan to buy the pound at the 1.2315 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to the 1.2373 level (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.2373, I will exit purchases and open sell positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 30–35 points in the opposite direction). A rise in the pound today can be anticipated only after weak U.S. data.Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to buy the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.2280 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth to the opposite levels of 1.2315 and 1.2373 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:

I plan to sell the pound after a breakout of the 1.2280 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.2227 level, where I will exit sales and immediately open buy positions in the opposite direction (expecting a movement of 20–25 points in the opposite direction). Sellers will likely emerge in the case of strong U.S. statistics.Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2:

I also plan to sell the pound today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.2315 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.2280 and 1.2227 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – target price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – target price where Take Profit orders can be placed or profits can be manually locked, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Focus on overbought and oversold areas when entering the market.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders on the Forex market must exercise extreme caution when making trading decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of critical fundamental reports to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.

Remember: Successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.