Analisis Forex & Kajian: 17.02.2025 - Wave analysis of BTC on...

17.02.2025 10:42 AM

Wave analysis of BTC on February 17. Crypto market like calm sea

The wave count on the 4-hour chart for the BTC/USD pair looks entirely clear. After a long and complex corrective structure a-b-c-d-e, which was formed from March 14 to August 5, a new impulsive wave began to form, which should and already has taken a five-wave form. Judging by the size of the first wave in this structure, the fifth wave could be shortened. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000 - $115,000 in the coming months.

I also draw attention to wave 4, which consists of three elements, confirming the correctness of the current wave count. The news background supported Bitcoin's rise due to the constant influx of news about new investments from institutional traders, governments of some countries, and pension funds. However, Trump's policies may cause investors to leave the market, and the trend cannot remain nonstop bullish. The current external appearance of the supposed wave 2 in 5 raises doubts about it being wave 2 in 5. I tend to believe that the upward sequence of the trend has already ended.

Bitcoin remains in a limited range

The BTC/USD exchange rate has changed little over the past week. Essentially, Bitcoin remains within a sideways range, and the amplitude of movements in the past week is extremely weak. Moreover, a smaller sideways range formed within the wider sideways range, where Bitcoin traded over the past week. Thus, there are currently no significant movements in the market. If there are no movements, opening new positions is pointless. No doubt, the range-bound market will end sooner or later, but when exactly?

There are also virtually no news. From time to time, various reports from the cryptocurrency world arrive, but none of them have any impact on the flagship cryptocurrency. The market is still waiting. I believe that it is not waiting for news or global events. The market is waiting for a major player to indicate the next direction for the cryptocurrency.

For the past month, I have consistently said that I do not expect new growth for Bitcoin. A decline to $70,000–$80,000 might not happen either, but guessing is pointless. Currently, a complex corrective structure is still underway. Once signs of its completion appear, the wave count can be reconsidered, and new conclusions can be made. It can be assumed that the beginning of a new corrective section of the trend, its first wave, is being formed now. However, Bitcoin will have difficulty dropping below $88,858, as there are few sellers in the market, and they are very weak.

Key takeaways

Based on the wave analysis of BTC/USD, I conclude that the growth of the instrument is nearing its end or has already ended. This may be an unpopular viewpoint, but the fifth wave has turned out to be shortened. If this is indeed the case, we can expect a collapse or a complex correction. For now, everything points to a complex correction. Therefore, I would not recommend buying cryptocurrency at this point. If Bitcoin drops below the low of wave 4, it will confirm the transition of the instrument into the bearish sequence.

On the higher wave scale, a five-wave upward structure is visible. Therefore, a corrective downward structure or a downward segment of the trend will begin soon.

Key principles of my analysis:

Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often change.
If you are uncertain about the market trend, it's better to stay out.
There is no 100% certainty in price direction. Always use Stop Loss orders to protect your positions.
Wave analysis can be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies for a more comprehensive approach.

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