Analisis Forex & Kajian: 13.04.2023 - Bitcoin holds $30k amid...

13.04.2023 10:42 AM

Bitcoin holds $30k amid intensifying deflationary movement: What to expect next?

Bitcoin's two-week consolidation movement near the $28k level ended, and the cryptocurrency moved into an active phase of price movement. The crypto asset made a bullish exit outside the range, which later transformed into a "wedge" pattern.

Bitcoin realized bullish momentum before the publication of inflation reports, which was the main trigger for the cryptocurrency. Subsequently, the expectations were confirmed, and the market reacted to the news with a minimal price movement.

However, the March 2023 inflation reporting results could be a turning point in the bullish sentiment of the cryptocurrency market. Also, positive macro data allowed Bitcoin to move into the next fluctuation range, where the key targets will be levels above $32k.

Deflationary movement intensifies

On the eve of the publication of inflation data, restrained but positive expectations reigned in the market. Most investors expected the inflation rate to fall to 5.2% from 6% in February. As a result, the indicator fell to 5% year-on-year, which provoked additional euphoria in the market.

As a result, the annual inflation rate in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in two years. Futures markets immediately reacted to the strengthening of the deflationary movement and reduced the likelihood of a rate hike in May by 0.25%.

Fed officials announced the main theses in the context of new data on inflation and noted that the target rate was reduced after the crisis in the banking system. The regulator also said it is discussing a pause in raising the rate due to the difficult macroeconomic situation.

On the one hand, this news can be perceived positively, but it is important to emphasize that the Fed has just completed a local stimulus program for banks. This means we can expect another deflationary slowdown in a few months.

BTC/USD Analysis

Despite all the potential skepticism, Bitcoin has become one of the main beneficiaries of lower inflation. Crypto investors recouped the positive news back on Tuesday, resulting in only a minimal spike in volatility on Wednesday.

As of April 13, Bitcoin is trading near the $30k level with low trading volumes in the region of $18 billion. Due to the long consolidation near the $28.5k level and the bullish breakout of the "wedge" pattern, we can conclude that BTC is moving smoothly into a new swing range – $28k–$30.5k.

At this stage, the $28.5k level becomes a key support zone where large volumes of BTC have been accumulated. At the same time, the $30.5k level is a local resistance level for the price. CME shows increased investor interest in the $34.5k–$35.4k zone.

Also, near the $34.5k level, there is a global Fibo level of 0.236, which can become a magnet for the price. In the short term, we see readiness for a new bullish move on the 1D timeframe. Stochastic and MACD have formed a bullish crossover, which indicates a likely upward movement.

At the same time, there is no reason to expect a powerful bullish rally, since the signals of technical metrics are not confirmed by the upward dynamics of trading volumes and network activity. Given this, among the short-term targets of BTC, it is worth highlighting the likely retest of the $30.5k level.

Results

Fundamentally and emotionally, Bitcoin has significantly strengthened and is ready to continue the upward movement. The key levels for the bullish rally of the asset at this stage will be the $34.5k–$35.8k level, where large volumes of sell orders are concentrated, and the 0.236 Fibo level also passes.

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