Analisis Forex & Kajian: 31.08.2022 - The Fed will raise rates to...

31.08.2022 03:46 PM

The Fed will raise rates to 4.0% and only then will it stop

And even though yesterday we watched the American stock market go through another shock, representatives of the Federal Reserve System decided not to stop there. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said today that interest rates would rise significantly before the central bank can ease its fight against inflation. Mester, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said the key interest rate would exceed 4% in the coming months — well above the current target range of 2.25–2.5%. The rate is tied not only to the overnight rate for banks but also to many consumer and mortgage lending instruments, which will increase the cost of borrowing for the population.

"At present, I believe that by the beginning of next year, it is necessary to raise the federal funds rate above 4% and keep it at this level," Mester said in a prepared speech in Dayton. "I don't expect the Fed to lower the target federal funds rate next year." As for the duration of the high-interest rate period, according to the Fed spokeswoman, rates will remain high "for some time" - a phrase that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently used.

Remember that this year the Fed has raised rates four times, and now they are at the level of 2.5 percentage points. The markets forecast a third consecutive increase of 0.75 percentage points at the September meeting and expect the rate cut to begin in the fall of 2023.

Mester also noted that the rate increase will lead to a slowdown in economic growth, which, in her opinion, will be "significantly below 2%." She expects inflation to fall to 5–6% this year and then get closer to the Fed's target.

Premarket:

Express – The clothing retailer's shares fell 4.7% in premarket trading after its quarterly revenue fell short of expectations.

Chewy's shares sank quite heavily. The drop was 10.8% in the premarket after the reduction in the annual forecast.

The well-known company, HP Inc., fell by 7.1% in premarket trading after quarterly profit coincided with estimates and revenue did not meet forecasts. HP is the latest computer manufacturer to report a reduction in electronics costs.

Snap securities fell 7.2% in the premarket after losing two key executives who moved to work at Netflix.

Crazy volatility in Bed Bath & Beyond securities persists. The shares fell 13.9% in premarket trading after the home goods retailer applied to sell additional common shares issued in the future. Bed Bath & Beyond also updated steps to strengthen its finances, including commitments for more than $500 million in new financing.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise's report and results were in line with Wall Street forecasts, despite declining IT business spending. CEO Antonio Neri told Barron's that the network equipment and services provider sees "steady demand."

As for the technical picture of the S&P500, buyers have a small chance of an upward correction, but it is necessary to overcome the $4,003 level. For good statistics for the USA, I advise you to pay attention to this level. It depends on its breakdown whether the index continues to grow or will return to its monthly lows again and continue to fall. In the event of further downward movement, the breakdown of $3,968 will push the trading instrument to a minimum of $3,940, creating a direct road to the area of $3,905, where the pressure on the index may weaken slightly. It will be possible to talk about the growth of the index only after controlling the resistance of $4,003. This will push us to $4,038. This is the only way we will see fairly active growth in the area of $4,64, where large sellers will return to the market again. At a minimum, there will be those who want to fix profits on long positions. A more distant target would be the $4,091 level.

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