empty
12.04.2021 03:40 PM
GBP/USD. Sterling relies on hope and faith as all other factors point to a decline

Today is the day when retail stores that sell non-essential goods, as well as pubs, bars, and restaurants that have the ability to serve customers outdoors, will partially open in England after almost 100 days of lockdown.

"Today is an important step forward in our roadmap to freedom. I am sure this will be a huge relief for those business owners who have been closed for so long," said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

This is certainly a big step for Britain and business, but it is worth considering that about 70,000 retail jobs were already lost last year, according to the British Retail Consortium.

In turn, retailers who are reopening their doors have spent millions of pounds on measures to promote safe shopping, from glass barriers at check-in to more frequent cleaning. They also worked with the government to address issues related to staff testing, and they simply won't be able to make up for the losses anytime soon.

As for the tourism industry, it is still very, very bad and we are not talking about recovery yet.

At the same time, British exporters reported lower sales in the first quarter after Covid-19, and the end of the long-running Brexit added to delivery delays, higher transport costs, and more extensive documentation, which carries large losses.

According to the British Chamber of Commerce, 41% of companies had lower revenue from overseas sales in the first quarter of the year, compared with 38% in the last three months of 2020. Hotels, retailers, and foodservice businesses were the hardest hit, according to the group's survey of more than 2,900 UK exporters.

These figures once again prove that the UK's exit from the European Union has upended supply chains and cooperation.

"With export sales at one of the lowest levels ever recorded in our data history, the fact that the situation continues to deteriorate is worrying. The difficulties exporters face are not just teething problems. These are structural problems that, if left unresolved, could lead to long-term, potentially irreversible weakness," said Hannah Essex, executive director of the British Chamber of Commerce.

Based on the above material, the joy, hope, and faith associated with the relaxation of quarantine measures are only a false perception of all the good things in the very difficult economic situation that the United Kingdom is facing.

This image is no longer relevant

What is happening in the market in terms of technical analysis?

Since the end of February, the GBP/USD currency pair has been following a correctional pattern from the peak of the medium-term trend of 1.4224, the scale of the weakening of the pound sterling is about 4%, and this is not so much when calculating the economic problems, as well as the scale of the upward movement in the period of 2020.

There is a potential for a decline in the exchange rate of the British currency in the market, and many traders are already planning a downward movement of at least 150-200 points, which will not yet be considered a change in trend.

As leverage for selling, as before, speculative operations can play if the price is kept below the local minimum of the existing correction of 1.3669. This is worth paying special attention to, as this may be the beginning of a strong decline.

Expectations and prospects

To begin with, pay attention to how accurately the volume of short positions is seduced in the area of the local correction minimum - 1.3669. Market participants hit the benchmark value (1.3669) on April 9 and 12, resulting in an immediate rebound, which indicates a high degree of natural basis for the reduction in trading volumes. This is a very good signal for sellers, as the base area is probed and the interaction of trade forces can be seen with the naked eye.

Thus, as soon as the price is kept lower than 1.3650 in a four-hour period, the chance for a depreciation of the pound sterling will increase significantly, and after it, the volumes of short positions will increase, which will lead us to the priority coordinates 1.3600-1.3550.

After that, the main target will be the area of interaction of trade forces 1.3200/1.3300/1.3400, but we will talk about this later.

This image is no longer relevant

What is happening on the GBP/USD chart in terms of indicator analysis and market dynamics?

Analyzing a different time sector, we see that technical instruments on the minute and hour intervals are signaling to buy due to the stage of a rebound from the 1.3669 area. The daily period signals a sale due to the corrective phase from the peak of the medium-term trend.

This image is no longer relevant

In terms of market dynamics, it can be seen that the activity on the market has noticeably decreased since April 8, but at the same time, the downward interest has not disappeared. At the same time, speculative excitement has the potential for growth, which is already visible on the market.

This image is no longer relevant

Pilih carta masa
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
jam
4
jam
1
hari
1
minggu
Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.
Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    SERTAI PERADUAN

Artikel yang dicadangkan

Ramalan AUD/USD bagi 17 Jun 2025

Dolar Australia telah mengukuh berhampiran garis saluran harga mendaki pada 0.6550 selama lapan sesi berturut-turut. Pengayun Marlin telah mengukuh di atas garis sifar malah lebih lama—sejak 28 Mei. Namun, aliran

Laurie Bailey 04:48 2025-06-17 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analisis dan Ramalan

Emas kini sedang berpegang pada kerugian harian. Secara keseluruhan, sentimen positif di pasaran saham sedang melemahkan permintaan untuk logam berharga ini. Walau bagaimanapun, gabungan beberapa faktor sedang menghalang pasaran menurun

Irina Yanina 12:18 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Ramalan untuk EUR/USD pada 16 Jun 2025

Pada hari Jumaat, pasangan EUR/USD berbalik memihak kepada dolar Amerika Syarikat dan membuat pengukuhan di bawah paras pembetulan Fibonacci 100.0% pada 1.1574. Keadaan ini tidak berlaku tanpa sebab, yang akan

Samir Klishi 12:02 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD – 16 Jun: Tahap 1.3527 Kekal Dikuasai oleh Kenaikan harga

Pada carta mengikut jam, pasangan GBP/USD pada hari Jumaat melantun semula dua kali dari tahap penarikan semula Fibonacci 127.2% di 1.3527 dan meningkat menuju zon rintangan 1.3611–1.3633. Walau bagaimanapun, sebelum

Samir Klishi 10:27 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian USD/IDR Pasangan Mata Wang Eksotik, Isnin 16 Jun 2025.

Dengan kemunculan corak Bullish 123 di tengah-tengah keadaan penyusutan pada pasangan mata wang eksotik ini, yang telah disahkan oleh pergerakan harga USD/IDR yang bergerak dalam saluran Equisidant dengan cerun menurun

Arief Makmur 07:16 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Analisis Teknikal Pergerakan Harga Harian Instrumen Komoditi Minyak Mentah, Isnin 16 Jun 2025.

Pada carta 4 jam instrumen komoditi Minyak Mentah, terdapat kemunculan Perbezaan antara pergerakan harga #CL dan penunjuk Pengayun Stochastic , yang menunjukkan bahawa dalam masa terdekat terdapat potensi untuk pembetulan

Arief Makmur 07:16 2025-06-16 UTC+2

Isyarat Dagangan untuk EUR/USD bagi 13-19 Jun, 2025: beli di atas 1.1500 (21 SMA - 7/8 Murray)

Di bawah senario yang bertentangan, jika euro jatuh di bawah 1.1490, kemungkinan besar ia akan mencecah 200 EMA, yang terletak pada 1.1340 dan bertepatan dengan bahagian bawah saluran aliran menaik

Dimitrios Zappas 14:14 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Isyarat Dagangan EMAS untuk 13-19 Jun 2025: jual di bawah 3,343 (21 SMA - 8/8 Murray)

Emas telah meninggalkan jurang pada 3,282 dan satu lagi sekitar 3,181. Jadi, jika harga jatuh di bawah paras psikologi 3,300, kita boleh menjangkakan ia jatuh untuk menutup paras harga

Dimitrios Zappas 14:12 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Ramalan untuk EUR/USD pada 13 Jun, 2025

Pada hari Khamis, pasangan EUR/USD meneruskan pergerakan kenaikannya dan berjaya membuat pengukuhan di atas paras 100.0% anjakan semula Fibonacci pada 1.1574. Namun, sepanjang malam, berlaku pembalikan mendadak memihak kepada dolar

Samir Klishi 11:52 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Ramalan untuk GBP/USD pada 13 Jun, 2025

Pada carta setiap jam, pasangan GBP/USD pada hari Khamis melantun semula dari tahap 1.3520, melonjak ke zon rintangan 1.3611–1.3620, dua kali melantun daripadanya, dan kemudian jatuh semula ke tahap anjakan

Samir Klishi 11:49 2025-06-13 UTC+2
Tidak boleh bertanya sekarang?
Tanya soalan anda di Ruangan bersembang.
Panggilan semula Widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.