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17.04.2025 11:55 AM
EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast
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regarding upcoming changes in monetary policy from both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed).

Anticipation of a 25 basis point rate cut by the ECB—its sixth consecutive cut amid easing inflation and ongoing trade risks—may significantly impact the euro's exchange rate and overall market sentiment. According to Eurostat data released on Wednesday, annual inflation in the eurozone fell to 2.2% in March from 2.6% the previous month. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, dropped to 2.4%, a level last seen in January 2022.

The decline in inflation and the overall slowdown in the eurozone economy—exacerbated by high tariffs from the U.S.—provide a basis for a more dovish stance from the ECB. Investors and traders should closely monitor today's European economic releases and ECB President Christine Lagarde's comments, which may offer guidance on the central bank's next steps. It will be especially important to understand how the ECB plans to address current economic challenges and what forecasts it is ready to present.

On the other hand, the situation in the U.S. appears somewhat different. A 1.4% rise in retail sales in March points to continued strength in consumer spending, which may reduce pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates. Jerome Powell's recent comments that the Fed is not inclined to ease policy in the near future further reinforce confidence in the U.S. economy—especially considering that inflationary pressures have stemmed primarily from President Donald Trump's aggressive tariff policies. Nevertheless, markets are still pricing in the possibility that the Fed may lower borrowing costs three times this year due to growing concerns about an economic slowdown driven by trade tensions.

Today's U.S. economic releases, including initial jobless claims and construction sector data, could provide insight for adjusting trading positions. These figures will influence market expectations for future actions by the Fed and ECB—setting the tone not only for the currency market but also for short-term trading strategies.

Thus, upcoming events and economic reports may have a significant impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate and help shape expectations for future monetary policy in both regions.

From a technical standpoint, since oscillators on the daily chart remain in overbought territory, the EUR/USD pair is currently susceptible to a correction.

Irina Yanina,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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