empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
22.01.2025 08:50 AM
Analysis of BTC/USD - January 22: Gary Gensler's Resignation Delights the Market
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure of BTC/USD on the 4-hour chart is quite clear. After a lengthy and complex corrective structure (a-b-c-d-e) that developed from March 14 to August 5, a new impulsive wave has started to form, which is already showing a five-wave structure. Given the size of the first wave, it is likely that the fifth wave may be shortened. Therefore, I do not expect Bitcoin to exceed $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, wave 4 has taken on a three-wave form, which confirms the validity of the current wave marking. As wave 5 continues to develop, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities. However, as previously mentioned, this wave could conclude very soon—or it may have already ended. The news environment remains supportive of Bitcoin's growth, driven by reports of investments from institutional traders, governments, and pension funds in certain countries. While some of this information may not be entirely accurate, demand for Bitcoin is on the rise. The critical question now is how long this demand can be sustained.

The Crypto Market Is Optimistic About the Future

On Tuesday, BTC/USD rose by $4,300; however, this increase did not alter the current wave count. I still do not see a convincing wave 2 within the presumed wave 5 that would indicate new buying opportunities for Bitcoin. While Bitcoin is certainly on the rise, the sustainability of this growth remains uncertain. Many analysts believe that Bitcoin's growth is eternal or at least has a long way to go, with price projections ranging from $250,000 to even $1,000,000. Personally, I am less optimistic and expect Bitcoin to experience significant periodic corrections.

Yesterday, the market reacted positively to the resignation of Gary Gensler, who has repeatedly obstructed the crypto industry in recent years. The Trump administration appears to take a more liberal stance toward Bitcoin and other crypto assets, aiming to ease regulations. Moreover, Trump has expressed openness to including Bitcoin in the U.S. strategic reserves. While these developments are contributing to a rise in BTC's price, I remain cautious about the longevity of this growth. Wave 2 within wave 5 could take on a three-wave form, leading to another drop below $100,000. If wave 5 turns out to be truncated, we may see a much stronger collapse of Bitcoin's value. Once again, I am not convinced that Bitcoin will experience perpetual growth under any U.S. president.

This image is no longer relevant

General Conclusions

Based on my analysis of BTC/USD, I believe that the current growth phase of this instrument may be nearing its end. While this perspective might be unpopular, I suspect that wave 5 could be truncated, potentially leading to a collapse or a complex correction. Therefore, I do not recommend buying cryptocurrency at this time.

If wave 5 develops into an extended five-wave structure, it should be preceded by a clear corrective wave 2. This corrective wave would indicate that the market is preparing for new buying momentum, creating opportunities for investors to enter.

On a higher timeframe, a five-wave bullish structure is evident. Soon, we may see the emergence of a corrective bearish structure or the onset of a bearish trend.

Key Principles of My Analysis

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are challenging to trade and often subject to change.
  2. If market conditions are unclear, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can and should be combined with other analytical methods and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Analytical News
US Market News Digest for May 12 US stock indices are advancing on a wave of optimism surrounding potential progress in trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Investors are hopeful that an eventual agreement could ease geopolitical
Ekaterina Kiseleva
15:25 2025-05-12 +02:00
1300
Technical analysis
Forex forecast 12/05/2025: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY, Gold and Bitcoin Useful links: My other articles are available in this section InstaForex course for beginners Popular Analytics Open trading account Important: The begginers in forex trading need to be very careful
Sebastian Seliga
13:37 2025-05-12 +02:00
1780
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Bitcoin spikes from $96 600 to $104 500 in 24 hours

Bitcoin has surged to $104,500, after trading at $96,600 just yesterday morning. This confident move above the $100,000 mark clearly signals a return of strong bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency
Jakub Novak 14:49 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on May 9

Bitcoin has climbed above $100,000, while Ethereum is trying to consolidate above $2,000. After yesterday's sharp rally, which continued during today's Asian session, Bitcoin is now trading at $103,000, having
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:46 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement Ethereum Cryptocurrency, Friday May 09, 2025.

If we look at the 4-hour chart of the Ethereum cryptocurrency, it appears that the price movement is moving above the WMA (30 Shift 2) which also has a slope
Arief Makmur 06:27 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement Bitcoin Cryptocurrency, Friday May 09, 2025.

On the 4-hour chart of the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, the Stochastic Oscillator indicator can be seen to be in Overbought conditions and is now preparing to Cross SELL and break below
Arief Makmur 06:27 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Bitcoin: Who's Driving the Price Up — Powell, the U.S. Treasury, or Short Squeezes?

While stock indices remain stagnant, gold consolidates near its highs, and Bitcoin is once again capturing attention. The crypto market's flagship has approached the psychologically important $100,000 level
Ekaterina Kiseleva 00:28 2025-05-09 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on May 8

Bitcoin reached just below $100,000, while Ethereum hit $1,900. Such a major growth in the cryptocurrency market once again confirms its bullish outlook, which has been discussed quite
Miroslaw Bawulski 09:22 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Bitcoin on the Brink: Breakout or Reversal?

Bitcoin's price is hovering near a psychologically significant threshold, with market participants bracing for another upward surge or a sudden reversal that could erase short-term bullish expectations. More chart
Ekaterina Kiseleva 01:16 2025-05-08 UTC+2

Crypto market opens with buoyant growth

US stock index futures surged sharply at the opening of today's trading session on news that representatives from the US and China have resumed consultations on trade matters. Media reports
Jurij Tolin 14:14 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on May 7

Bitcoin and Ethereum Show Further Growth Amid Positive Crypto Legislation News Bitcoin is currently trading at $96,700, having rebounded from a low of $93,400, while Ethereum has recovered
Miroslaw Bawulski 10:32 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Bitcoin Gathers Strength: The Market Prepares for the Next Wave

Bitcoin is trading in the $93,000–$94,000 range, about 0.5% below its recent local high of $97,900, recorded on May 2. Volatility has decreased, and the market seems
Ekaterina Kiseleva 01:23 2025-05-07 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 04:00 2025-05-13 UTC--4
EUR/USD. May 12. The Ukraine conflict may be resolved
10:04 2025-05-12
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-05-14 UTC--4
The Market Will Face Reality
09:18 2025-05-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 04:00 2025-05-13 UTC--4
GBP/USD. An Important Week for the Pound
10:49 2025-05-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-05-12 UTC--4
GBP/USD Overview – May 12: Business as Usual...
03:48 2025-05-12
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 20:00 2025-05-12 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 12. The Euro Is in No Hurry to Fall, and the Dollar to Rise
03:48 2025-05-12
Trading plan
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.