Forex Analysis & Reviews: 17.07.2023 - Economists revise global...

17.07.2023 03:09 PM

Economists revise global growth forecasts due to China

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Economists revise their forecasts for global economic growth due to China's disappointing economic performance. They are lowering their predictions for next year, citing significant shortcomings in economic recovery and Beijing's restrained response to stimulus measures.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Citigroup's economists were among those who gave a negative assessment of the situation. On Monday, official data released by Beijing authorities showed that the economy lost momentum in the second quarter, with a noticeable decline in consumer spending in June and a contraction in real estate investments.

Citigroup Inc. economists believe that GDP growth this year will be 5% instead of 5.5%. Beijing's official target, set in March at around 5%, is now under threat. JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares a similar opinion.

"The new projection takes into account 'more realistic' policy support over the coming months," JPMorgan Chase & Co. noted. The bank said while a meeting of the Communist Party's Politburo later this month would provide clues about policy thinking, there were risks that policy could "fall behind the curve or short of expectations."

Morgan Stanley also lowered its estimate to 5% from 5.7%. United Overseas Bank Ltd., Capital Economics Ltd., and Societe Generale SA also reduced their forecasts. The absence of a significant stimulus package, which was eagerly awaited in recent months, became the main reason for revising the forecasts.

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Shares of video game producer Activision Blizzard rose by 4% after Microsoft and Sony signed an agreement to keep Call of Duty on Sony PlayStation gaming consoles following Microsoft's acquisition of Activision Blizzard.

Chewy stocks jumped by more than 5% after Goldman Sachs upgraded their rating to "buy" from "neutral." The firm stated that the e-commerce pet goods company has an attractive risk and reward profile and can increase its margin.

PepsiCo, the beverage giant, saw a 1.2% drop in shares after Morgan Stanley downgraded its rating from "buy" to "hold." According to Morgan Stanley, Pepsi's strong earnings report and growth potential are now priced into the shares, leading to limited growth potential.

Tesla, the electric vehicle manufacturer, saw an almost 2% increase in pre-market trading.

AT&T shares fell by 1.5% after Citi downgraded its rating from "buy" to "neutral."

As for the S&P 500 index, demand for the trading instrument remains. Bulls have a chance to continue the uptrend, but they need to push the price above $4,515. From this level, there could be a surge to $4,539. Another important task for bulls will be to maintain control over $4,589, which may strengthen the bull market. In case of a downward movement due to a decrease in risk appetite, bulls will have to protect the level of $4,488. Breaking through this level, the trading instrument may return to $4,469 and $4,447.

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