empty
31.01.2025 01:43 PM
BTC/USD Analysis – January 31: Trump and Powell Drive Bitcoin Higher

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the 4-hour chart on the BTC/USD appears entirely clear. Following a prolonged and complex a-b-c-d-e corrective pattern that developed from March 14 to August 5, a new impulse wave has emerged, which has already taken on a five-wave structure. Given the size of the first wave within this structure, the fifth wave may end up being truncated. Based on this, I do not expect Bitcoin to rise above $110,000–$115,000 in the coming months.

Additionally, Wave 4 has taken on a three-wave structure, confirming the accuracy of the current wave count. Since the construction of the anticipated Wave 5 has begun, it makes sense to look for buying opportunities. However, as I mentioned earlier, this wave may conclude very soon (or may have already ended).

The news backdrop has supported Bitcoin's growth due to a steady flow of reports about new investments from institutional traders, governments of certain countries, and even pension funds. However, Trump's policies could drive investors out of the market, and the trend cannot remain upward indefinitely.

BTC/USD surged by $1,400 on Thursday. Buyers continue to hold Bitcoin near its historical highs, signaling to the market that the leading cryptocurrency could continue rising. However, in my view, caution is warranted when buying at current price levels.

Undoubtedly, if demand remains strong, Bitcoin could rise to $150,000 or even $200,000. However, anyone familiar with the cryptocurrency market knows that Bitcoin is not only famous for its explosive rallies but also for its frequent 80–90% crashes.

The crypto market is highly susceptible to manipulation by large players due to the lack of regulation from central banks or other authorities. Major Bitcoin holders can push the price up or down at will, with the ultimate target being profit maximization. At current prices, they could trigger a mass sell-off, only to start accumulating again around $50,000—or even lower.

That said, most market participants are not yet prepared for a crash. While Donald Trump has not yet begun filling the U.S. Treasury with Bitcoin, he has ordered an evaluation of this "business plan." Meanwhile, Jerome Powell also mentioned Bitcoin in his speech on Wednesday evening—a rare occurrence.

The Fed Chairman stated that the crypto market needs a regulatory framework and that banks should improve their risk management strategies regarding cryptocurrencies. These remarks indicate that the Fed supports the development of the crypto sector—and so does Donald Trump. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin demand remains consistently high.

This image is no longer relevant

Key Conclusions

Based on my BTC/USD analysis, I conclude that the current uptrend is nearing its end. While this view may be unpopular, Wave 5 could end up being truncated, followed by a sharp decline or a complex correction. Therefore, I do not recommend buying Bitcoin at this time.

If Wave 5 develops into an extended five-wave structure, then a convincing corrective Wave 2 should form within it. At the moment, Wave 2 is visible on the chart, but it is not very strong. I believe that at least one more decline is likely.

On a higher time frame, a five-wave upward structure is clearly visible. This suggests that a corrective, downward structure or a bearish trend phase may soon begin.

Core Principles of My Analysis

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often undergo revisions.
  2. If there is uncertainty in the market, it is better to stay out.
  3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Another Major Company Announces $1 Billion Raise to Buy Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency market is showing strong confidence. Given its correlation with the U.S. stock market—where historical highs are being updated—there is room to expect further growth in digital assets. However

Jakub Novak 10:50 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 27

Bitcoin and Ethereum have paused their upward movement following yesterday's weak fundamental data, indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy's growth. However, this wasn't the primary driver behind the pause

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 26

Bitcoin and Ethereum are demonstrating stable growth amid new forecasts regarding the number of interest rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve this year. Another dovish stance from

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:19 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Bitcoin Aims For Continued Growth

Yesterday, Bitcoin continued its upward movement, driven by the notably softer tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future of interest rates. His cautious remarks — that

Jakub Novak 12:42 2025-06-25 UTC+2

BTC/USD Analysis on June 25, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour BTC/USD chart remains generally clear. We observed a corrective downward formation that completed near the $75,000 level. After that, a strong upward movement began

Chin Zhao 12:32 2025-06-25 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 25

Bitcoin and Ethereum continued their rally yesterday, triggered by news of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish tone during his testimony in the House

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:33 2025-06-25 UTC+2

BTC/USD Now trying to reach the level of 106000. Tuesday, June 24, 2025.

1. Market Sentiment Summary. When yesterday President Trump softened his aggression against Iran, it eased the current world geopolitical tensions, causing several market players to start returning to risky assets

Arief Makmur 07:36 2025-06-25 UTC+2

Bitcoin and Ethereum Regain Strength

Bitcoin and Ethereum are showing strong performance. After holding the $100,000 level, large buyers returned to their usual activity and have already pushed BTC back to the $105,000 area. Ethereum

Jakub Novak 10:52 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 24

Bitcoin and Ethereum surged sharply after news emerged that Iran and Israel might halt their exchanges of strikes. U.S. President Donald Trump announced yesterday that Iran and Israel had agreed

Miroslaw Bawulski 10:04 2025-06-24 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 23

Bitcoin and Ethereum plummeted following speculation that Iran might block the Strait of Hormuz and begin bombing U.S. oil tankers in retaliation for American strikes. This triggered a massive sell-off

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:07 2025-06-23 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.