Analysis of trades and tips for trading the British pound

The test of the 1.3095 level coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the right entry point for selling the pound—especially after weak GDP data. This resulted in a 20-point decline in the pair. The lack of GDP growth in the UK in July, along with lower quarterly figures, negatively impacted the pound's buying power, preventing the continuation of the upward trend from the Asian session. In the second half of the day, a sharp reduction in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August, along with a similar decline in the core CPI (excluding food and energy prices), could help strengthen the pair. However, if the inflation data suggests the Federal Reserve should take a more cautious approach toward additional rate cuts, GBP/USD is likely to continue falling. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act based on Scenario #1, despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect strong directional movement in the pair.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at a point around 1.3094 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.3139 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3139, I will exit my long positions and open sales in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point move in the opposite direction from this level. You can expect a rise in the pound today after weak U.S. data. Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and beginning to rise.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3069 level when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. You can expect growth to the opposite levels of 1.3094 and 1.3139.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today once the 1.3069 level (red line on the chart) is breached, leading to a quick drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3026, where I plan to exit my short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction, expecting a 20-25 point move from this level. Sellers will take control if the U.S. data is strong. Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and beginning to decline.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3094 level when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward reversal. You can expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.3069 and 1.3026.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – the entry price for buying the pair.
• Thick green line – the estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price for selling the pair.
• Thick red line – the estimated price for placing Take Profit or manually securing profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – It is important to monitor overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should be very cautious when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires having a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.