Analysis of trades and tips for trading the euro

There were no tests at the levels I mentioned earlier in the day. Due to the low market volatility and the lack of important statistics from the eurozone, I was unable to find suitable entry points. I hope the second half of the day will be much more interesting, as important U.S. inflation data is expected. Only a sharp decrease in the August consumer price index, along with a similar decline in the core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, will lead to a rise in the euro. This could signal a return of the upward trend. If inflation data points to the need for a more cautious approach to rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, confirmed by a rise in consumer prices, EUR/USD is expected to fall. For my intraday strategy, I plan to follow Scenario #1, despite the MACD indicator readings, as I expect a strong, directional move in the pair.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to buy the euro today at a price of around 1.1057 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.1099. At 1.1099, I will exit the market and also sell the euro in the opposite direction, expecting a 30-35 point move from the entry point. A strong upward movement for the euro can be expected only after a decline in U.S. inflation. Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1036 price when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.1057 and 1.1099 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro once the price reaches the 1.1036 level (red line on the chart). The target will be the 1.0994 level, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy the euro back, expecting a 20-25 point move in the opposite direction from the 1.1036 level. Pressure on the pair will return if inflation is high. Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1057 price when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward reversal. A drop to the opposite levels of 1.1036 and 1.0994 can be expected.

Chart Details:

• Thin green line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought.
• Thick green line – the estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – the entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold.
• Thick red line – the estimated price where you can place Take Profit or manually secure profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator – When entering the market, it is important to monitor the overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner forex traders need to be very cautious when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, such as the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.