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07.05.2019 03:14 AM
美联储正在努力在低通胀的条件下解决世界经济问题

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作为目前针对通胀的方法的一部分,美联储担心它没有准备好应对下一次经济衰退。此外,今年还在努力测试全球新的利率管理策略,以及低通胀和借贷成本。但美国中央银行和货币政策专家面临着一项更艰巨的任务:不仅要在下一次经济衰退之前建立坚实的基础,还要让公众相信这确实有效。

当世界各国央行转向非常规工具,如债券购买和远期管理,以应对2007 - 2009年的金融危机时,他们认为他们以独特的条件面对。但在经济大萧条结束十年之后,美联储显然正在处理新的经济规范。即使美国的失业率达到近50年来的低点,预计通货膨胀和利率都不会显著上升。这使得美国中央银行降低利率的机会要少得多,以刺激经济。因此,今年,当美国经济稳定,利率政策暂停时,美联储认为,在下一次经济衰退发生时,他们可以放心地弄清楚如何使政策更有效。

其中包括:承诺通过高于目标的通货膨胀期来弥补低通货膨胀时期;看看最终的经济结果,而不是通货膨胀;利用负利率迫使企业投资,银行在经济衰退期间放贷。所有这些措施都将起到减震作用,以减轻经济疲软并减少经济衰退。加权平均通胀目标是基本情况,仍然获得最多支持。正如纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰·威廉姆斯所解释的那样,这个想法将关注一段时间内的平均通胀,例如一年半。

Irina Maksimova,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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