empty
04.04.2025 10:32 AM
EUR/USD. April 4th. The Trade Conflict Is Only Gaining Momentum

On Thursday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement. At the moment, the decline in the U.S. dollar has paused, but the market could "explode" again at any moment. A bounce from the 161.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1094 may signal a reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and a decline toward the 127.2% and 100.0% levels. A breakout and consolidation above 1.1094 would increase the chances of continued growth toward the next Fibonacci level at 200.0% – 1.1179.

This image is no longer relevant

The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, but the latest upward wave also broke the prior high. This currently points to a bullish trend reversal. Donald Trump imposed new tariffs last week, and this week he extended tariffs to all goods from all countries globally. Bulls had been showing weakness recently, but as it turned out yesterday, that weakness was simply a period of waiting.

The news background on Thursday revolved solely around Trump's global tariffs. The generosity of the U.S. president is, indeed, striking. If tariffs against Nicaragua or Serbia are of little concern to traders, a 54% duty on Chinese imports is a major issue, given the enormous trade volume between the U.S. and China. Trump also hasn't forgotten the European Union. Previous tariffs on EU cars, steel, and aluminum were considered "general" tariffs. Now, an additional 10% has been added, meaning EU imports will now face a total "tax" of 20%. In both Beijing and Brussels, retaliatory measures are being prepared—which could further enrage Trump. He has repeatedly warned that any country daring to retaliate will face even greater tariff pressure. As such, next week may bring a flood of new information that could shake the charts in highly unexpected ways.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has made a new upward reversal in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.0969. The euro's growth, unsupported by EU economic data, should have ended long ago—but Trump continues to exert intense pressure on the dollar. A close above 1.0969 supports a continuation of the rally toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1213. The RSI is overbought, but right now, the fundamental background outweighs technicals.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

In the most recent reporting week, professional traders opened 844 long positions and closed 5,256 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group has once again turned bullish—thanks to Donald Trump. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 190,000, while short positions total 124,000.

For twenty consecutive weeks, large players had been selling off the euro, but for the last seven weeks, they've been reducing short positions and building up longs. Despite the interest rate differential still favoring the U.S. dollar due to divergent monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed, Trump's trade policy has become the dominant factor. It could pressure the FOMC into a more dovish stance and potentially trigger a U.S. recession.

Economic Calendar for the U.S. and Eurozone (April 4):

  • U.S. – Nonfarm Payrolls (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Unemployment Rate (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Average Hourly Earnings (12:30 UTC)
  • U.S. – Speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell (15:25 UTC)

April 4 features three key events on the economic calendar, but whether the market even cares about them right now is questionable. Market sentiment on Friday is expected to be driven more by Trump's policies than by hard U.S. data.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair is possible today if there is a confirmed rebound from the 1.1094 level on the hourly chart, with a target of 1.1017.

Buying opportunities will open if the pair closes above 1.1094 on the hourly chart, targeting 1.1179.

Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.0957–1.0733 on the hourly chart and 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Grigory Sokolov
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/JPY pair remains in a consolidation phase near a three-week high, supported by U.S. dollar strength and mixed market signals. The dollar is being bolstered by U.S. President Donald

Irina Yanina 12:17 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Technical Analysis for the Week of July 14–19: GBP/USD Currency Pair

Last week, the pair moved downward and broke below the 8-period EMA at 1.3509 (thin blue line), closing the weekly candle at 1.3487. In the upcoming week, the price

Stefan Doll 11:40 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Technical Analysis for the Week of July 14–19: EUR/USD Currency Pair

Last week, the pair moved downward and nearly tested the 23.6% retracement level at 1.1647 (blue dashed line), after which the price turned upward and closed the weekly candle

Stefan Doll 11:34 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 14, 2025

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1712, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and resumed its decline toward the 1.1645 level

Samir Klishi 11:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 14, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Friday consolidated below the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3527 and continued its decline toward the next retracement level of 100.0% at 1.3444

Samir Klishi 11:25 2025-07-14 UTC+2

Cable still has the potential to continue its decline to its support level on Monday, July 14, 2025.

GBP/USD – Monday, July 14, 2025 GBP/USD is moving in a weakening condition where this is confirmed by its price movement below the 50-EMA, which is also below the 200-EMA

Arief Makmur 07:21 2025-07-14 UTC+2

The USD/CAD commodity currency pair has the potential to correct towards its pivot point today, Monday, July 14, 2025.

USD/CAD, July 14, 2025 Although the Lonnie is moving in a neutral-bullish position, there is potential for the USD/CAD commodity currency pair to test its pivot and support levels today

Arief Makmur 07:21 2025-07-14 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025

Friday's candlestick for the EUR/USD pair closed bearish, with the price consolidating below the daily MACD line. The objective for today is to secure a close below the 1.1692 level

Laurie Bailey 05:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025

On Friday, the British pound lost more than 80 pips, breaking below the daily balance line and the key signal level at 1.3510. The decline was driven by weak

Laurie Bailey 05:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2

AUD/USD Forecast for July 14, 2025

On the daily chart, the AUD/USD pair is positioned between the MACD line (0.6551) and the upper boundary of the local price channel (blue, 0.6597). A breakout of either level

Laurie Bailey 05:31 2025-07-14 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.