empty
04.04.2025 09:09 AM
The Growth of the Gold Price Has Stopped. What Is the Reason? (There Is a Possibility of a Local Corrective Pullback in #SPX and Bitcoin)

The global market crash triggered by the announcement of sweeping tariffs personally introduced by the U.S. President continues into Asian trading sessions. While the decline has slowed, there is still no sign of this trend weakening. Interestingly, gold prices have been behaving unusually and inconsistently in recent months. What's the reason?

In most countries, the atmosphere in markets and political circles can be best described as one of shock and awe. The onset of a widespread trade war between the U.S. and nearly the entire world has underscored America's true standing in the global hierarchy, which, despite internal divisions, remains pivotal. All global markets—stocks, currencies, cryptocurrencies, and commodities—reacted negatively to the so-called "day of liberation," resulting in a significant plunge. The U.S. dollar also fell sharply in response.

But in such a situation, something should have received support. So where did the money flow—even temporarily?

The primary beneficiary of the current situation has been government bonds, which saw a sharp increase in prices amid rising demand for safe-haven assets, resulting in falling yields. Investors rushed into the debt market, hoping to preserve some of their capital. U.S. Treasury yields plunged below 4%. German Bunds and British, French, and other developed nations' bonds followed the same trend. Demand for government bonds from economically developed countries surged, pushing yields down. Bond yields—particularly government ones—are calculated inversely: as prices rise, yields fall, and vice versa.

What about gold? Where does it stand, and why hasn't it emerged as a traditional safe-haven asset?

Indeed, gold is traded in U.S. dollars. The dollar has plummeted, so gold should have logically surged—but it hasn't. Traditionally, interest in gold as a safe haven grows in market chaos and geopolitical tension. But not now. Here's how I would explain it. First, gold prices are already in the stratosphere—true, though not the main reason, in my view.

The second reason is the sharp increase in gold reserves stored in COMEX warehouses across the U.S. in recent months, driven by fears that rising tariffs could disrupt supply. However, after the announcement that precious metals would not be subject to President Trump's "reciprocal" tariffs, demand for gold has been limited. That said, a significant drop in gold prices is unlikely. Most likely, the metal will consolidate near its recently reached highs. Fears of the inflationary impact of tariffs globally, combined with central bank purchases and strong demand for gold-backed ETFs, have helped contain the downside.

So, what can we expect from gold price dynamics?

I believe not much. A large-scale sell-off is unlikely. On April 5—tomorrow—we expect the "second act" of the drama, with Trump potentially announcing a new wave of tariffs. Since their scope is still unclear, today's negative trend in the markets may subside. We may even witness a short-term rebound in financial assets as positions are partially closed.

Today's U.S. jobs report will be released, but markets likely won't react enthusiastically, just as they haven't in recent weeks. The main focus remains on tariffs, the threat of global recession, and other issues triggered by the U.S. under President Donald Trump.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Daily Forecast:

#SPX

The CFD contract for the S&P 500 futures has paused its decline in anticipation of new tariff announcements expected from Donald Trump tomorrow. In this wave, the contract might experience an upward correction as some short positions are closed. If the price moves above 5407.00, it may trigger limited growth. A potential entry point could be the 5416.62 level.

Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency remains within a broad sideways range. A pause in market turmoil following the recent crash could lead to a local rise toward the 84,773.73 level. A potential entry point could be the 83,646.26 level.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Viktor Vasilevsky
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Market fears nothing

The S&P 500 reached another all-time high, with rotation being the hallmark of the US equity market. Investors are aggressively buying up stocks that underperformed in the first half

Marek Petkovich 10:50 2025-07-11 UTC+2

What to Watch for on July 11th? A Fundamental Overview for Beginners

There are very few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Friday, but the volume is still greater than on any previous day this week. The UK will release GDP and industrial production

Paolo Greco 08:50 2025-07-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 11, 2025

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to consolidate above the moving average on Thursday, so the correction continues for now. Throughout Thursday, the GBP/USD pair was unable to hold above

Paolo Greco 07:15 2025-07-11 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview on July 11, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair spent Thursday calmly drifting lower. We continue to wait for the current correction to end and for the uptrend to resume. To be fair, this correction

Paolo Greco 07:08 2025-07-11 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold prices are maintaining positive momentum for the second consecutive day. Ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's trade policy and its impact on the global economy continues to weigh

Irina Yanina 19:24 2025-07-10 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the USD/CHF pair retraced part of its decline from a new weekly low recorded during the Asian session and has temporarily paused its downward movement, stopping short

Irina Yanina 12:26 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Market dupes sellers

The split within the Federal Reserve, NVIDIA's successes, and a successful auction of 10-year US Treasury bonds allowed the S&P 500 to ignore the tariff chaos. Donald Trump announced tariffs

Marek Petkovich 12:02 2025-07-10 UTC+2

What to Watch on July 10th: Fundamental Event Overview for Beginners

Macroeconomic Report Analysis: There are very few macroeconomic publications scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are expected to be significant. So what could traders focus on today? The second

Paolo Greco 09:07 2025-07-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview on July 10, 2025

On Wednesday, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its downward movement, which is corrective in nature and could end at any moment. The price remained below the moving average line

Paolo Greco 07:26 2025-07-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview on July 10, 2025

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade very calmly on Wednesday. The pair maintained a slight downward bias, as we've noted in all of our recent articles. However, the current

Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-07-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.