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24.03.2025 12:25 PM
GBP/USD. March 24th. The British Pound Starts the New Week at Full Speed
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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its decline on Friday and even consolidated below the 1.2931 level. However, the drop was short-lived, as the bears on the pound remain extremely weak. Last week, they were also countered by the Bank of England, which unexpectedly took a fairly hawkish stance on monetary policy. Thus, Donald Trump's tariffs plus the Bank of England's position equals renewed growth for the pound. The pair's consolidation above 1.2931 allows us to expect continued growth toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 127.2% at 1.3003.

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The wave situation is absolutely clear. The last completed downward wave did not break the low of the previous wave, while the most recent upward wave broke the last peak. Therefore, the formation of a bullish trend continues. The pound has recently shown strong growth, and the news background hasn't been strong enough to justify such aggressive bullish action. However, most traders are unwilling to buy the dollar regardless of economic data, since Donald Trump keeps imposing new tariffs that are likely to harm U.S. economic growth as well as that of other global economies.

There was no news background on Friday, and there won't be much during the current week either. Both the UK and the U.S. will release various reports, but none are top-tier. The U.S. GDP report will attract the most attention. In my view, this week Donald Trump will continue to steer the market. In recent weeks, traders have reacted less actively to news from the White House, but there hasn't been much tariff-related news either. Trump continues to promote April 2 as "America's Liberation Day," so there's no reason to doubt that new tariffs will be announced soon. And the U.S. dollar has already started the week with a fresh decline—even in the absence of any news background. Trump is doing everything to ensure the American currency continues to weaken.

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On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues to rise. I am not expecting a strong drop in the pound unless the pair closes below the ascending channel. The CCI indicator has formed another bearish divergence, which, like the previous one, has not yet impacted the bulls' position. A rebound from the 1.2994 level allows us to expect a modest decline toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.2861, though the bears may not even reach that point.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

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The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 1,155, while the number of shorts rose by 946. Bears have lost their market advantage. The spread between long and short positions now stands at nearly 30,000 in favor of the bulls: 96,000 versus 67,000.

In my opinion, the pound still has room for a long-term decline, but recent developments may prompt a market reversal. Over the past three months, the number of long positions decreased from 98,000 to 96,000, while short positions fell from 78,000 to 67,000. More significantly, over the last seven weeks, longs have grown from 59,000 to 96,000, and shorts have decreased from 81,000 to 67,000. Let me remind you—that's seven weeks under Trump's leadership.

News Calendar for the UK and U.S.:

UK – Manufacturing PMI (09:30 UTC) UK – Services PMI (09:30 UTC) U.S. – S&P Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC) U.S. – S&P Services PMI (13:45 UTC)

Monday's economic calendar includes four entries, but traders have already made it clear from the morning that these won't significantly influence market sentiment. The impact of the news background on market mood will be weak today.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Advice:

Short positions were possible from the 1.3003 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.2931 and 1.2865. The first target has been reached, the second has not. Long positions are possible upon consolidation above the 1.2931 level on the hourly chart with a target of 1.3003.

The Fibonacci levels are plotted from 1.2809 to 1.2100 on the hourly chart, and from 1.2299 to 1.3432 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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