empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
31.07.2023 11:22 AM
Uncertainty looms over GBP/USD
Open trading account Open demo account

You can't envy the Bank of England. Despite its meeting taking place later than the meetings of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the tasks facing Andrew Bailey and his team appear much more complex than those of their European and American counterparts. Not only is inflation in the UK higher than in the USA and the eurozone, but the degree of political pressure is also off the charts. Economic advisors at the Treasury are certain that the BoE has gone too far and it's time for them to hit the brakes.

The futures market is 70% confident that the Bank of England will follow the example of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank and raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.25% at the meeting on August 3. However, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, Barclays, and UBS believe that the move will be more significant. NatWest agrees with them, asserting that the news of inflation slowing to less than 8% in June should not be overestimated. The combination of high prices in the services sector and rapidly rising wages necessitates decisive action from the central bank. If they add only a quarter of a percentage point to the borrowing costs and then experience an acceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), it will amplify the already overwhelming uncertainty.

Volatility and Inflation Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

The increased volatility prevents GBP/USD from showing its potential. Barclays refers to the Bank of England as the last "hawk," which should work in favor of the pound given the imminent end of the monetary restriction cycles by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Citi believes that if the repo rate increases by 50 basis points in August, the futures market will push its expected ceiling from the current 5.85% to 6.25–6.5%, which will serve as a catalyst for strengthening the pound. Conversely, a 25 basis point increase in borrowing costs will lower expectations to 5.75%. As a result, the British currency will continue to be under pressure.

The chances of a substantial move may be small. It's challenging to be resolute in a stagnant economy, especially based on a single inflation report. A quarter-point increase with a "hawkish" tone seems to be the optimal decision.

Inflation and Bank of England Rate Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

It's essential to consider that not everything in the GBP/USD pair depends on the BoE's verdict. Investors are confused. On one hand, the proximity of the end of the tightening cycle by the Federal Reserve inspires the opponents of the U.S. dollar. It will eventually be followed by a dovish pivot. On the other hand, the decision by the Bank of Japan to ease control over the yield curve poses risks of a rally in treasury rates, making American assets more attractive, attracting capital to North America, and strengthening the greenback.

This image is no longer relevant

Thus, the fate of GBP/USD is affected by double uncertainty—both internal and external—which intensifies the risks of consolidation.

Technically, on the daily chart of the analyzed pair, the combination of Three Indians and 1-2-3 patterns increases the chances of a correction continuation to an upward trend and its reversal. Nonetheless, it's best not to rush without an exit from consolidation. Sell GBP/USD from 1.277, buy from 1.3. Prior to that, preference is given to intraday trading with narrow targets.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Technical analysis
Gold: Ongoing Uncertainty Continues to Support Gold Prices Gold prices continue to receive support amid the fog of uncertainty surrounding the future course of the tariff wars initiated by Donald Trump. The price of gold has been climbing
Pati Gani
11:49 2025-04-17 +02:00
1090
Fundamental analysis
Is the Euro Ready for Another Rate Cut? We'll find out very soon whether the euro is once again prepared for the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue easing monetary policy. Today, the ECB is expected to lower
Jakub Novak
11:38 2025-04-17 +02:00
1375
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Is the Euro Ready for Another Rate Cut?

We'll find out very soon whether the euro is once again prepared for the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue easing monetary policy. Today, the ECB is expected to lower
Jakub Novak 11:38 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Powell Sees a More Restrictive Fed Policy This Year

The euro showed little reaction, while the pound slipped slightly against the U.S. dollar following yesterday's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to Powell, the Fed is currently
Jakub Novak 11:34 2025-04-17 UTC+2

Markets swing between euphoria and panic

If you believe a recession is looming, the rule is simple: sell first, ask questions later. When the National Bureau of Economic Research officially declared a recession in the United
Marek Petkovich 09:55 2025-04-17 UTC+2

No Progress in Negotiations

This week, the European Union and the United States made no significant progress in resolving trade disputes, as officials from President Donald Trump's administration indicated that most of the U.S
Jakub Novak 18:48 2025-04-16 UTC+2

XAU/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Gold continues to draw investor attention, particularly in times of heightened uncertainty in financial markets. Trade Uncertainty: Ongoing uncertainty in trade relations between the U.S. and China makes gold
Irina Yanina 11:50 2025-04-16 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair is attracting new sellers today, showing signs of weakness under current economic conditions, driven by several key factors. Weak U.S. Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks
Irina Yanina 11:41 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Time works against market

Time is not on Donald Trump's side, nor the side of the US stock market. The longer the uncertainty surrounding White House policy drags on, the more likely it becomes
Marek Petkovich 11:39 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Confrontation Between the U.S. and China Will Negatively Impact Markets (Potential for Renewed Declines in #NDX and Litecoin)

Market optimism, fueled by Donald Trump's active manipulation of the tariff narrative, was short-lived. Traders remain focused on the escalating tensions between the U.S. and China following the U.S. Department
Pati Gani 11:34 2025-04-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on April 16? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Wednesday, but some important reports will be released. However, the current key issue is not the reports' significance but how the market will
Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-04-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – April 16: The Pound Sees No Limits

On Tuesday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement. Although this rally was not as strong as last week's surge, the British pound kept rising steadily, with barely
Paolo Greco 03:35 2025-04-16 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 02:00 2025-04-18 UTC--4
Is the Euro Ready for Another Rate Cut?
11:38 2025-04-17
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-04-18 UTC--4
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 17th – Forex Trade Review
11:19 2025-04-17
Forecast
Relevance up to 03:00 2025-04-18 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Analysis and Forecast
11:55 2025-04-17
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-04-18 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on April 17th – Forex Trade Review
11:15 2025-04-17
Forecast
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-04-19 UTC--4
Technical Analysis of Intraday Price Movement of Nasdaq 100 Index, Thursday April 17, 2025.
06:27 2025-04-17
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.