ফরেক্স বিশ্লেষণ এবং পর্যালোচনা: 23.06.2021

23.06.2021 03:33 PM

GBP/USD: Ambiguity goes off the scale

The UK government is considering allowing vaccinated citizens to travel to more than 150 countries without the need for quarantine on their return to England.

However, this decision may not come into force until August, which means that the tourism business and air carriers will continue to suffer losses. At the same time, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, during a speech on Sky News on June 21, warned citizens that 2021 will be difficult for traveling abroad since the main goal of the government is to prevent the import of coronavirus infection into the country.

In simple words, it will be possible to travel, but at your own risk. Let me remind you that this is not the first warning from the government regarding travel and hints to suspend it.

Boris Johnson did not stop there, saying on Sky News that the country could face new epidemiological threats, and new lockdowns are possible this winter.

That is, there is no guarantee that the situation with the pandemic will end, restrictions even after their removal on July 19 can be re-introduced and tightened as necessary. Thus, business and investment continue to stand awkwardly in place, as it is unclear what will happen next.

The fears of the government are justified. Since the end of May, there has been a steady increase in new cases of infection in the UK. According to the recently obtained data, they are already at the levels of February, and this is a signal of a new wave.

Now a concern arises, the UK is one of the leading countries in mass vaccination, but somehow this does not stop the outbreak. The deadlines for lifting restrictive measures may be shifted again and tightened as necessary. This, in turn, will lead to new bankruptcies, layoffs, and a deterioration of the economic situation in the country.

What is happening in the market in terms of technical analysis?

The pound sterling sank in value against the US dollar in the last trading week, where the price coordinates 1.3785 serves as a variable pivot point, relative to which a technical correction occurred. The recovery of the quotes brought us to the area of the psychological level of 1.3950/1.4000/1.4050, regaining about half of the inertia in the period of June 16-18.

Given the ambiguous situation with the coronavirus pandemic, it is not excluded that the pound will again be hit by sellers, where the previously set inertial downward course in the market will be extended to new price levels.

It is worth recalling that even at the beginning of the month, the quotes were moving in the area of the maximum of the medium-term upward trend, which in turn was intertwined with the highs of 2018.

In simple terms, the pound sterling is still very expensive, even taking into account the recent collapse, and there is room for it to decline.

For the best assimilation of trading cycles, open the daily chart of GBP/USD, where the whole depressing situation is visible to the naked eye. If expectations about the COVID situation coincide and Britain has to move the deadline for lifting restrictive measures again, this will lead to a prolonged effect of the weakening of the pound sterling.

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